BTC/USD Perpetual Bybit Live Price Chart

So you want in on bitcoin?

Guide for Noobs

Simple and Not A Lot of Money

Guide for Not Noobs

Less Simple

-setup an account on coinbase.com, move dollars into your account, setup an account on gdax.com (same company, same login), move your cash from coinbase to gdax, buy your coins on GDAX at Market, fees are cheaper 0.25% versus 1.5%
-consider buying alternative coins supported by coinbase

No Fees

-all of the above but use GDAX's Limit/Buy, zero fees, but you have to wait for the market to dip below your buy price

More Money Available

-setup several Limit/Buy orders at different price points to capture dips when you are away

More Control but More Complex

-it's possible coinbase could go out of business, move some or most of your coins to a personal hardware wallet like a Trezor or Ledger Nano S, made in Czech Republic and France respectively
-consider using other exchanges with different fees and coin support
-consider buying other alternative coins supported by other exchanges

You Are Very Responsible

-create a paper wallet, put it in a safe, be warned it's like a visual bearer instrument, if you lose it or someone takes a picture of it...it's gone, but you have complete control over your money/asset

DO NOT EVER

-buy more than you can lose, it's early wild west days, the market could easily come crashing down
-panic sell, the market fluctuates regularly by 20%, thus far it has ALWAYS recovered, people that try to sell during a fall/dip and buy at the bottom usually miss time it and lose
-store your keys on your computer or phone unless its small amount, these are the two most vulnerable routes to hacking and simple hardware failure resulting in loss
-attempt to daytrade and time the best prices unless your real life job is day trading
-get addicted to watching the market, pay attention watch for dips, but don't let it crowd out your work or free time
-keep a LOT of cash or coin in an exchange, it is very easy to mistype and buy or sell far more than you meant to, exchanges can disappear with your coins
-buy a hardware wallet from anyone other than the company who makes it, i.e. do not buy one on Amazon, it is possible some third person hacked it and could steal your coin

PROBABLY DON'T

-limit sells until the far future when market volatility is down, flash crashes have happened and recovered, if you had all your coin in limit sells it would be gone
-margin trade unless your real life job is day trading
-stop buys or stop sells unless your real life job is day trading

DO

-hold your coins, your coin may be worth x10 or more in value in the future, e.g. if bitcoin replaced gold, bitcoin would be worth ~x70 the current value
-buy small amounts over time DCA, this might not seem intuitive but it spreads your risk out, reduces risk of buying at all time highs (ATH) and more likely to catch lows (dips), a fluctuation of $100 in price is small if the eventual value is worth x10 or more in the future
-keep a small amount of cash on an exchange always, when there is a lot of traffic/trading which happens during dips, you are much more likely to be able to make trades on an exchange rather than with your own wallet

REMEMBER

-if you don't have your coin in your own wallet, it's not your coin. this is not a problem until you have a lot of value and you want to keep it safe from a bankruptcy, unscrupulous people/exchanges, or unforeseen acts. if it's a small amount compared to your income it's an acceptable risk, if not then move it to a wallet
-in the days of fake news not everything you read is true, in fact there are armies of people shilling for 'pick a random coin'; some are malicious, some uninformed, and some willfully uninformed
-if your value starts to become large, dig deep into how your asset/currencies work just like you would for any other purchase, understanding how it works helps you understand if it will be a success, e.g. understand the difference between PoW vs PoS or what a hard fork is
-some coins especially newer ones are scams, a good indication of if it is not a scam is how long the coin has been around
-most bitcoin hard forks so far have not been successful with some exceptions
-btc is the accepted short-name for bitcoin on most (but not all) exchanges, xbt is also common in EUR-land

Other Risks

-holding your own coin requires personal responsibility, it is easy to lose and not be able to recover it if you are not careful
-again, do not buy more coin than you can lose
-transaction speeds which are slow are a serious problem in bitcoin scaling
-there is less innovation and more argument going on in bitcoin than some other coins, bitcoin is large enough that consensus is difficult, future change is less likely than with some other coins, there are other side solutions to bitcoins problems that may not require bitcoin to change much
-bitcoin.org IS the generally accepted bitcoin website, NOT bitcoin.com
-important other risks compiled by themetalfriend
-coinbase has insurance up to $250k USD for you USD Wallet which DOES NOT cover your bitcoins or other crypto currencies, they claim to have separate insurance for your crypto currency but it is unclear how much

Community

there are a lot of memes
-hodl, GameKyuubi mistyped hold and it spread
-to the moon, where everyone hopes the price will go
-coin on a rollercoaster, it is highly volitile market you will see this during fluctuations
-this is gentlemen, via Liquid_child , here
-lambo/roadster, a car people want to buy when they get rich
-the cost of pizza, early days someone bought a pizza for 10,000btc which is worth over ~80million USD today
-tesla/vehicle with a bitcoin chart, cytranic posted a picture that spread
-intersting guide by stos313 , here. I do not agree with everything but it has a lot of useful information.

CORRECTIONS

Edit: Adding in user comments.
Edit: Crosslinking to a more Beginner Version.
Edit: Note in an earlier edit of this guide I said.
note that most of the development on bitcoin is by employees of one company, it is open source but their priorities may not align with the community
This is not true. Blockstream appears to have a high representation but not an overwhelming amount. You can compare blockstream's employee page and bitcoin's commits in the last year. Thank you to lclc_ , trilli0nn , and Holographiks for pointing this out. See this for a detailed break down.
Edit: Clarification that FDIC insurance does NOT cover crypto currency/assets.
Edit: Clarity on who owns bitcoin.org

Good Luck and Hodl.

Please comment if your experience is different. Or call out things I missed.
submitted by cryptocurrencypeople to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

25 Tools and Resources for Crypto Investors: Guide to how to create a winning strategy

Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
This is going to be Part 1 and will deal with research resources, risk and returns. In Part 2 I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets with derived price targets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
Analysis tools
Portfolio Tracking
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption, if anything adoption among eCommerce sites is decreasing. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage of previous price action. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning for that possibility through proper allocation and setting return expectations that are reasonable.

Risk Management

Quanitifying risk in crypto is surprisingly difficult because the historical returns aren't normally distributed, meaning that tools like Sharpe Ratio and other risk metrics can't really be used as intended. Instead you'll have to think of your own risk tolerance and qualitatively evaluate how risky each crypto is based on the team, the use case prospects, the amount of competition and the general market risk.
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm) as ultimately everything is tied to how Bitcoin does, but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, if some China FUD comes out about regulations on Bitcoin then your investment in solid altcoin picks will go down too along with Bitcoin. This (Rm) return is essentially what risk you undertake to have a market ROI of 385% I talked about above. What you can minimize though is the Ri, the aset specific risks with the team, the likelihood they will actually deliver, the likelihood that their solution will be adopted. Unfortunately there is no one way to do this, you simply have to take the time to research and form your own opinion on how risky it really is before allocating a certain percentage to it. Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
  • guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that's a Ponzi)
  • float allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • vague whitepapers
  • vague timelines
  • no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into "low" risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
  • Low Risk Core - This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero.
  • Medium Risk Speculative - These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like ZCash, Ripple, NEO..etc.
  • High Risk Speculative - This is anything created within the last few months, low caps, shillcoins, ICOs...etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years.
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. If you're a newbie who doesn't understand the tech and has no idea how to value assets, your risk tolerance should be lower than a programmer who understand the tech or a financial analyst who is experienced in valuation metrics.
Right now the trio of BTC-ETH-LTC account for 55% of the market cap, so between 50-70% of your portfolio in low Risk Core for newbies is a great starting point. Then you can go down to 25-30% as you gain confidence and experience. But always try to keep about 1/3rd in safe core positions. Don't go all in on speculative picks.
Core principles to minimize risk
  • Have the majority of your holdings in things you feel good holding for at least 2 years. Don't use the majority of your investment for day trading or short term investing.
  • Consider using dollar cost averaging to enter a position. This generally means investing a X amount over several periods, instead of at once. You can also use downward biased dollar cost averaging to mitigate against downward risk. For example instead of investing $1000 at once in a position at market price, you can buy $500 at the market price today then set several limit orders at slightly lower intervals (for example $250 at 5% lower than market price, $250 at 10% lower than market price). This way your average cost of acquisition will be lower if the crypto happens to decline over the short term.
  • Never chase a pump. Its simply too risky as its such an inefficient and unregulated market. If you continue to do it, most of your money losing decisions will be because you emotionally FOMO-ed into gambling on a symbol.
  • Invest what you can afford to lose. Don't have more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto.
  • Consider what level of loss you can't accept in a position with a high risk factor, and use stop-limit orders to hedge against sudden crashes. Set you stop price at about 5-10% above your lowest limit. Stop-limit orders aren't perfect but they're better than having no hedging strategy for a risky microcap in case of some meltdown. Only you can determine what bags you are unwilling to hold.
  • Diversify across sectors and rebalance your allocations periodically. Keep about 1/3rd in low risk core holdings.
  • Have some fiat in reserve at a FDIC-insured exchange (ex. Gemini), and be ready to add to your winning positions on a pullback.
  • Remember you didn't actually make any money until you take some profits, so take do some profits when everyone else is at peak FOMO-ing bubble mode. You will also sleep much more comfortably once you take out the equivalent of your principal.

Portfolio Allocation

Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization to think about:
  • Currency
  • General Purpose Platform
  • Advertising
  • Crowdfunding Platform
  • Lending Platform
  • Privacy
  • Distributed Computing/Storage
  • Prediction Markets
  • IOT (Internet of Things)
  • Asset Management
  • Content Creation
  • Exchange Platform
I generally like to simplify these down to these 7 segments:
  • Core holdings - essentially the Low Risk Core segment
  • Platform segment
  • Privacy segment
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment
This is merely what I use, but I'm sure you can think of your own. The key point I have is to try to invest your medium and high risk picks in a segment you understand well, and in which you can relatively accurately judge risk. If you don't understand anything about how banking works or SWIFT or international settlement layers, don't invest in Stellar. If you have no idea how a supply chain functions, avoid investing in VeChain (even if it's being shilled to death on Reddit at the moment just like XRB was last month). Buffet calls this "circle of competence", he invests in sectors he understands and avoids those he doesn't like tech. I think doing the same thing in crypto is a wise move.
What's interesting is that often we see like-coin movement, for example when a coin from one segment pumps we will frequently see another similar coin in the same segment go up (think Stellar following after Ripple).
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should set price targets for each of your holdings, which is a whole separate discussion I'll go in Part 2 of the guide.

Summing it up

This was meant to get you think about what return targets you should set for your portfolio and how much risk you are willing to take and what strategies you can follow to mitigate that risk.
Returns around 385% (average crypto market CAGR over the last 3 years) would be a good target to aim for while remaining realistic, you can tweak it a bit based on your own risk tolerance. What category of risk your individual crypto picks should be will be determined by how much more greed you have for above average market return. A portfolio of 50% core holdings, 30% medium risk in a sector you understand well and 20% in high risk speculative is probably what the average portfolio should look like, with newbies going more towards 70% core and only 5% high risk speculative.
Just by thinking about these things you'll likely do better than most crypto investors, because most don't think about this stuff, to their own detriment.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Crypto Investing Guide: Useful resources and tools, and how to create an investment strategy

Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
Many people entered recently at a time when the market was rewarding the very worst type of investment behavior. Unfortunately there aren't many guides and a lot of people end up looking at things like Twitter or the trending Youtube crypto videos, which is dominated by "How to make $1,00,000 by daytrading crypto" and influencers like CryptoNick.
So I'll try to put together a guide from what I've learned and some tips, on how to invest in this asset class. This is going to be Part 1, in another post later I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
Analysis tools
Portfolio Tracking
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption or actual widespread utility with cryptocurrency. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning for that possibility through proper allocation and setting return expectations that are reasonable.
How to set a realistic ROI target
How do I set my own personal return target?
Basically I aim to achieve a portfolio return of roughly 385% annually (3.85X increase per year) or about 11.89% monthly return when compounded. How did I come up with that target? I base it on the average compounded annual growth return (CAGR) over the last 3 years on the entire market:
Year Total Crypto Market Cap
Jan 1, 2014: $10.73 billion
Jan 1, 2017: $615 billion
Compounded annual growth return (CAGR): (615/10.73)1/3 = 385%
My personal strategy is to sell my portfolio every December then buy back into the market at around the beginning of February and I intend to hold on average for 3 years, so this works for me but you may choose to do it a different way for your own reasons. I think this is a good average to aim for as a general guideline because it includes both the good years (2017) and the bad (2014). Once you have a target you can construct your risk profile (low risk vs. high risk category coins) in your portfolio. If you want to try for a higher CAGR than about 385% then you will likely need to go into more highly speculative picks. I can't tell you what return target you should set for yourself, but just make sure its not depended on you needing to achieve continual near vertical parabolic price action in small cap shillcoins because that isn't sustainable.
As the recent January dip showed while the core cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum would dip an X percentage, the altcoins would often drop double or triple that amount. Its a very fragile market, and the type of dumb behavior that people were engaging in that was profitable in a bull market (chasing pumps, going all in on a microcap shillcoin, having an attention span of a squirrel...etc) will lead to consequences. Just like they jumped on the crypto bandwagon without thinking about risk adjusted returns, they will just as quickly jump on whatever bandwagon will be used to blame for the deflation of the bubble, whether the blame is assigned to Wall Steet and Bitcoin futures or Asians or some government.
Nobody who pumped money into garbage without any use case or utility will accept that they themselves and their own unreasonable expectations for returns were the reason for the gross mispricing of most cryptocurrencies.

Risk Management

Quanitifying risk in crypto is surprisingly difficult because the historical returns aren't normally distributed, meaning that tools like Sharpe Ratio and other risk metrics can't really be used as intended. Instead you'll have to think of your own risk tolerance and qualitatively evaluate how risky each crypto is based on the team, the use case prospects, the amount of competition and the general market risk.
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm) as ultimately everything is tied to how Bitcoin does, but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, if some China FUD comes out about regulations on Bitcoin then your investment in solid altcoin picks will go down too along with Bitcoin. This (Rm) return is essentially what risk you undertake to have a market ROI of 385% I talked about above. What you can minimize though is the Ri, the aset specific risks with the team, the likelihood they will actually deliver, the likelihood that their solution will be adopted. Unfortunately there is no one way to do this, you simply have to take the time to research and form your own opinion on how risky it really is before allocating a certain percentage to it. Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
  • guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that's a Ponzi)
  • float allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • vague whitepapers
  • vague timelines
  • no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into "low" risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
  • Low Risk Core - This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero.
  • Medium Risk Speculative - These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like ZCash, Ripple, NEO..etc.
  • High Risk Speculative - This is anything created within the last few months, low caps, shillcoins, ICOs...etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years.
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. If you're a newbie who doesn't understand the tech and has no idea how to value assets, your risk tolerance should be lower than a programmer who understand the tech or a financial analyst who is experienced in valuation metrics.
Right now the trio of BTC-ETH-LTC account for 55% of the market cap, so between 50-70% of your portfolio in low Risk Core for newbies is a great starting point. Then you can go down to 25-30% as you gain confidence and experience. But always try to keep about 1/3rd in safe core positions. Don't go all in on speculative picks.
Core principles to minimize risk
  • Have the majority of your holdings in things you feel good holding for at least 2 years. Don't use the majority of your investment for day trading or short term investing.
  • Consider using dollar cost averaging to enter a position. This generally means investing a X amount over several periods, instead of at once. You can also use downward biased dollar cost averaging to mitigate against downward risk. For example instead of investing $1000 at once in a position at market price, you can buy $500 at the market price today then set several limit orders at slightly lower intervals (for example $250 at 5% lower than market price, $250 at 10% lower than market price). This way your average cost of acquisition will be lower if the crypto happens to decline over the short term.
  • Never chase a pump. Its simply too risky as its such an inefficient and unregulated market. If you continue to do it, most of your money losing decisions will be because you emotionally FOMO-ed into gambling on a symbol.
  • Invest what you can afford to lose. Don't have more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto.
  • Consider what level of loss you can't accept in a position with a high risk factor, and use stop-limit orders to hedge against sudden crashes. Set you stop price at about 5-10% above your lowest limit. Stop-limit orders aren't perfect but they're better than having no hedging strategy for a risky microcap in case of some meltdown. Only you can determine what bags you are unwilling to hold.
  • Diversify across sectors and rebalance your allocations periodically. Keep about 1/3rd in low risk core holdings.
  • Have some fiat in reserve at a FDIC-insured exchange (ex. Gemini), and be ready to add to your winning positions on a pullback.
  • Remember you didn't actually make any money until you take some profits, so take do some profits when everyone else is at peak FOMO-ing bubble mode. You will also sleep much more comfortably once you take out the equivalent of your principal.

Portfolio Allocation

Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization but I generally like to bring it down to:
  • Core holdings - essentially the Low Risk Core segment
  • Platform segment
  • Privacy segment
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment
This is merely what I use, but I'm sure you can think of your own. The key point I have is to try to invest your medium and high risk picks in a segment you understand well, and in which you can relatively accurately judge risk. If you don't understand anything about how banking works or SWIFT or international settlement layers, don't invest in Stellar. If you have no idea how a supply chain functions, avoid investing in VeChain (even if it's being shilled to death on Reddit at the moment just like XRB was last month).
What's interesting is that often we see like-coin movement, for example when a coin from one segment pumps we will frequently see another similar coin in the same segment go up (think Stellar following after Ripple).
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should set price targets for each of your holdings, which is a whole separate discussion I'll go in Part 2 of the guide.

Summing it up

This was meant to get you think about what return targets you should set for your portfolio and how much risk you are willing to take and what strategies you can follow to mitigate that risk.
Returns around 385% (average crypto market CAGR over the last 3 years) would be a good target to aim for while remaining realistic, you can tweak it a bit based on your own risk tolerance. What category of risk your individual crypto picks should be will be determined by how much more greed you have for above average market return. A portfolio of 50% core holdings, 30% medium risk in a sector you understand well and 20% in high risk speculative is probably what the average portfolio should look like, with newbies going more towards 70% core and only 5% high risk speculative.
Just by thinking about these things you'll likely do better than most crypto investors, because most don't think about this stuff, to their own detriment.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

The best crypto and blockchain podcasts of 2019

For anyone who it interested in learning more about investing, crypto, finance, blockchain, and entrepreneurship can checkout this list I made of the top podcasts to follow in 2019 with some selected episodes chosen from each one:

Off The Chain With Anthony Pompliano
Host Anthony Pompliano talks to some of the most respected names in crypto and Wall Street to find out how intelligent investors from the new and old financial system are thinking about digital assets.
Top Episodes:
CZ, Founder and CEO of Binance: Binance and the Future of Global Crypto Regulation
Murad Mahmudov: The Ultimate Bitcoin Argument
Travis Kling: The Secrets of A Crypto Trader

Unchained: Your No-Hype Resource for All Things Crypto
This weekly, hour-long podcast with host Laura Shin dives deep into the people building the decentralized internet, the details of this technology that could underpin our future, and some of the thorniest topics in crypto, such as regulation, security and privacy.
Top Episodes:
Vitalik Buterin, Creator of Ethereum, On The Big Guy vs. The Little Guy
Naval Ravikant On How Crypto Is Squeezing VCs, Hindering Regulators, and Bringing Users Choice
Blockchain 101 with Andreas Antonoloulos

What Grinds My Gears
From Meltem Demirors and Jill Carlson, What Grinds My Gears is a podcast about the bizarre and buzzworthy happenings in the world of cryptocurrency. Each week, they delve into one key theme in crypto, and examine this theme through a broader financial, political, and cultural lens to learn from the past, understand the present, and explore the future.
Top Episodes:
An Unfetted Orgy Of Capitalism
It’s All About The DEX, Baby!
Tarred & Tethered

What Bitcoin Did
Since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, a new class of Crypto assets built using the innovative design of the blockchain is disrupting technology and financial markets. In this podcast you will hear host Peter McCormack speak with crypto traders, miners, venture capitalist, investors, technical developers, CEOs, journalist and other people driving forward the growth of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Link To Listen
Top Episodes:
Andreas Antonopoulos: What Happens When Bitcoin Takes Over?
Peter Van Valkenburg on Lightning & The Law
Tuur Demeester on Why Bitcoin Is In Heavy Accumulation

Untold Stories with Charlie Shrem
Host Charlie Shrem dives deep into the lives and personal histories of some of crypto’s most influential leaders. A focus on personal stories weaves together a nuanced, untold narrative of how the crypto movement truly came to be.
Top Episodes:
J. Maurice “Wiz” — The Real Story of Mt. Gox & How to Become a Self-Sovereign Bitcoin Miner
Arianna Simpson — Why Founders Shouldn’t Think About an Exit & Becoming BitGo’s 3rd Employee
Steven Nerayoff — Crypto as a Disruptive Technology & Governments Debasing Their Own Currencies

Tales From The Crypt
Tales from the Crypt is a podcast hosted by Marty Bent about Bitcoin. Join Marty, Editor in Chief of “the best newsletter in crypto”, as he sits down to discuss Bitcoin with interesting people.
Top Episodes:
Tales from the Crypt: Pierre Rochard Pt. I
Tales from the Crypt #3: Santiago Siri
Tales from the Crypt Ep1: The History of Bitcoin Pt. 1

The Token Daily with Soona Amhaz
Host soona amhaz sits down with the movers and shakers of the crypto industry to discuss the big ideas they spend their days thinking about. Soona and her guests examine everything from industry trends, to what books they’re reading, to human psychology and investing.
Top Episodes:
Taylor Pearson, Author of The End of Jobs: Markets Are Eating the World
Dani Grant, Analyst at Union Square Ventures: The VC Outlook on Crypto’s Trends and Future
Tony Sheng, Independent Analyst: A Writer’s Take on Bitcoin Lore

The Flippening
Flippening is for cryptocurrency investors. Each week host Clay Collins discusses the cryptocurrency economy, new investment strategies for maximizing returns, and stories from the front lines of financial disruption. Flippening is for a new class of investors that were not part of the financial services world before bitcoin, but got into the finance because of their passion for cryptoassets, blockchain, altcoins, and distributed ledger technology.
Top Episodes:
Strategies for Accumulating BTC (Instead of USD) w/ Tuur Demeester from Adamant Capital
The Economics of Cryptoasset Markets w/ Professor Stephen McKeon
Bootstrapping A Crypto Nation State From Scratch, w/ Eric Meltzer of INBlockchain

The Chain Reaction Podcast
Host Tom Shaughnessy of Delphi Digital converses with the top names in crypto and blockchain.
Top Episodes:
ConsenSys’ Joe Lubin: Ethereum’s Competition Isn’t Even Close
Delphi Digital’s March Analyst Call — Ethereum, Enjin and Our Short Term Bitcoin Outlook
Vision Hill Group’s Scott Army: Digital Asset Management of the Future

a16z Podcast
The a16z Podcast discusses tech and culture trends, news, and the future — especially as ‘software eats the world’. It features industry experts, business leaders, and other interesting thinkers and voices from around the world. This podcast is produced by Andreessen Horowitz (aka “a16z”), a Silicon Valley-based venture capital firm.
Top Episodes:
What Time Is It? From Technical to Product to Sales CEO
Principles and Algorithms for Work and Life
Five Open Problems Toward Building a Blockchain Computer

Unconfirmed: Insights and Analysis From the Top Minds in Crypto
Events in crypto take place at warp speed. This weekly crypto podcast reveals how the marquee names in crypto are reacting to the week’s top headlines. With host Laura Shin, the guests also discuss what they’re thinking about these days and reveal what they believe is on the horizon in crypto. Disclosure: Laura is a nocoiner.
Top Episodes:
To the Moon and Back With Polychain’s Olaf Carlson-Wee
Don Wilson of DRW Holdings on What’s Been Driving 2018’s Crypto Downturn
Hu Liang of Omniex on What Institutional Players Are Planning to Do in Crypto

The Unhashed Podcast
Unhashed breaks down the latest in Bitcoin news and developments and puts them into terms everyone can understand. Expect to be both entertained and educated about cryptocurrencies and blockchain. How do hardware wallets work and do they really keep you safe? Which crypto exchanges pose the greatest risk to the bitcoin ecosystem? Does Litecoin help or hinder bitcoin development? Expect the answers to these and many other questions from the Unhashed professionals offering different perspectives to all the blockchain issues you care about!
Top Episodes:
The Very Rich, Very Patient Binance Hacker
Bitcoin Goes High Fidelity
Initiating Unhash

The Scoop
The Block’s team, led by Frank Chaparro, draw out the freshest and deepest insights about digital assets from traditional Wall Street, crypto native, Fortune 500 and many other crypto ecosystem leaders. It’s light, fun and informative brain food!
Top Episodes:
A Conversation with Mark Yusko, CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management
A Conversation with Stephen Palley, Partner at Anderson Kill
A Conversation with Emilie Choi, VP Business and Data, Coinbase

Base Layer
Base Layer with host David Nage will be providing insights from founders and investors in the base layer of cryptoassets. Simplifying complex projects and the technology being developed, from interoperability to relayers and more — who is building the future, why are they and how are they doing it.
Top Episodes:
Base Layer Episode 028 — Zaki Manian (SkuChain, Cosmos, Tendermint)
Base Layer Episode 026 — Diogo Monica (Co — Founder, Anchorage)
Base Layer Episode 032 — Alexander Skidanov (NEAR)

Blockchain Innovation: Interviewing The Brightest Minds In Blockchain
Blockchain Innovation is where host Frederick Munawa interviews the brightest minds in Blockchain and cryptocurrency — entrepreneurs, executives, and top academics — to discuss present and future applications of Blockchain Technology. Why? To determine how Blockchain can be used to increase profits, cut costs, and disrupt traditional industries and business models — so you can borrow their strategies, tools, and tactics for your own success. Join Frederick every Tuesday to learn how the brightest minds in Blockchain are pushing the envelope with Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) and token sales, public blockchains, private blockchains, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Hyperledger, smart contracts, and much more.
Top Episodes:
Why Bitcoin Should Hard Fork With Roger Ver
How Blockchain Assets Are Changing The World With Erik Voorhees
Blockchain Meets Artificial Intelligence with Dr. Ben Goertzel

Blockchain Insider
Blockchain Insider, hosted by Simon Taylor and Colin Platt is a dedicated podcast specializing in Bitcoin, Blockchain and distributed ledger technology (DLT). Simon and Colin break down the week’s news with expertise and enthusiasm for the blockchain and digital currency sector. Since the price of Bitcoin has rocketed, and Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin have become household names, Blockchain Insider has charted their rise in a way that’s accessible to new listeners.
Top Episodes:
Ep. 42. Santander Makes Ripples and Charles Hoskinson Shares His Vision of Cardano
Ep. 27. XRP’s Ripple effect and Blockchain use cases
Ep. 43. Sexism in Crypto, Pornhub takes Verge, and Binance Denies the Dollar

Let’s Talk Crypto
Have you ever heard of digital currencies like bitcoin, ethereum, and buzzwords like blockchain, cryptocurrencies and mining? Don’t know what it all means or how to get started? Let’s Talk Crypto with Barry Moore and Tom Galeski breaks it all down in easy to understand terms and helps you “learn and earn” in the age of cryptocurrencies.
Top Episodes:
006: Altcoins
017: Fiat & Crypto
010: Proof of Work vs. Proof of Stake

Blockchain 2025
Blockchain is a technology that will disrupt nearly every industry. Host Matt Aaron and Blake Moore explore one industry in every episode. How will blockchain change art, music, or online advertising? What projects are already underway? Listen & find out.
Top Episodes:
Online Ads — Publishers and Advertisers vs. Centralized Platforms
Music Biz — Can Artists Have More Money + Freedom?
Crypto Debit Cards — A Bridge to the Future? TenX, Monaco, Comit

IBM Blockchain Pulse
Host and blockchain-evangelist Matt Hooper engages with the planet’s most dynamic blockchain thought-leaders, explorers and innovators to discover the countless new ways blockchain is leaping from theory to reality: From entertainment to identity, from payments to secure supply-chain transparency.
Top Episodes:
Making Cross-Border Payments Seamless — IBM Blockchain and Stellar’s Collaboration That is Bringing Commercial Payments to the Financial World
A Blockchain Origin Story and Enabling Complete Ownership With Blockchain
The Future of Protecting Your Wallet and Identity: Blockchain Identity and Digital Credentials, with Adam Gunther and Drummond Reed

Messari’s Unqualified Opinions
Unqualified Opinions is a podcast hosted by Messari’s CEO Ryan Selkis featuring candid, fast-paced interviews with crypto’s top builders and investors.
Top Episodes:
Bill Barhydt, CEO & Founder of Abra
Anthony Pompliano, Founder at Morgan Creek Digital
Unlock Protocol CEO Julien Genestoux
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Trading Cryptocurrency Markets

Hello! My name is Slava Mikhalkin, I am a Project Owner of Crowdsale platform at Platinum, the company that knows how to start any ICO or STO in 2019.
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I am also happy to be a part of the UBAI, the first educational institution providing the most effective online education on blockchain! We can teach you how to do ICO/STO in 2019. Today I want to tell you how to sell and transfer cryptocurrencies.
Major Exchanges
In finance, an exchange is a forum or platform for trading commodities, derivatives, securities or other financial instruments. The principle concern of an exchange is to allow trading between parties to take place in a fair and legally compliant manner, as well as to ensure that pricing information for any instrument traded on the exchange is reliable and coherently delivered to exchange participants. In the cryptocurrency space exchanges are online platforms that allow users to trade cryptocurrencies or digital currencies for fiat money or other cryptocurrencies. They can be centralized exchanges such a Binance, or decentralized exchanges such as IDEX. Most cryptocurrency exchanges allow users to trade different crypto assets with BTC or ETH after having already exchanged fiat currency for one of those cryptocurrencies. Coinbase and Kraken are the main avenue for fiat money to enter into the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Function and History
Crypto exchanges can be market-makers that take bid/ask spreads as a commission on the transaction for facilitating the trade, or more often charge a small percentage fee for operating the forum in which the trade was made. Most crypto exchanges operate outside of Western countries, enabling them to avoid stringent financial regulations and the potential for costly and lengthy legal proceedings. These entities will often maintain bank accounts in multiple jurisdictions, allowing the exchange to accept fiat currency and process transactions from customers all over the globe.
The concept of a digital asset exchange has been around since the late 2000s and the following initial attempts at running digital asset exchanges foreshadows the trouble involved in attempting to disrupt the operation of the fiat currency baking system. The trading of digital or electronic assets predate Bitcoin’s creation by several years, with the first electronic trading entities running afoul of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) in late 2004. Companies such as Goldex, SydneyGoldSales, and Ozzigold, shut down voluntarily after ASIC found that they were operating without an Australian Financial Services License. E-Gold, which exchanged fiat USD for grams of precious metals in digital form, was possibly the first digital currency exchange as we know it, allowing users to make instant transfers to the accounts of other E-Gold members. At its peak in 2006 E-Gold processed $2 billion worth of transactions and boasted a user base of over 5 million people.
Popular Exchanges
Here we will give a brief overview of the features and operational history of the more popular and higher volume exchanges because these are the platforms to which newer traders will be exposed. These exchanges are recommended to use because they are the industry standard and they inspire the most confidence.
Bitfinex
Owned and operated by iFinex Inc, the cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex was the largest Bitcoin exchange on the planet until late 2017. Headquartered in Hong Kong and based in the US Virgin Island, Bitfinex was one of the first exchanges to offer leveraged trading (“Margin trading allows a trader to open a position with leverage. For example — we opened a margin position with 2X leverage. Our base assets had increased by 10%. Our position yielded 20% because of the 2X leverage. Standard trades are traded with leverage of 1:1”) and also pioneered the use of the somewhat controversial, so-called “stable coin” Tether (USDT).
Binance
Binance is an international multi-language cryptocurrency exchange that rose from the mid-rank of cryptocurrency exchanges to become the market dominating behemoth we see today. At the height of the late 2017/early 2018 bull run, Binance was adding around 2 million new users per week! The exchange had to temporarily disallow new registrations because its servers simply could not keep up with that volume of business. After the temporary ban on new users was lifted the exchange added 240,000 new accounts within two hours.
Have you ever thought whats the role of the cypto exchanges? The answer is simple! There are several different types of exchanges that cater to different needs within the ecosystem, but their functions can be described by one or more of the following: To allow users to convert fiat currency into cryptocurrency. To trade BTC or ETH for alt coins. To facilitate the setting of prices for all crypto assets through an auction market mechanism. Simply put, you can either mine cryptocurrencies or purchase them, and seeing as the mining process requires the purchase of expensive mining equipment, Cryptocurrency exchanges can be loosely grouped into one of the 3 following exchange types, each with a slightly different role or combination of roles.
Have you ever thought about what are the types of Crypto exchanges?
  1. Traditional Cryptocurrency Exchange: These are the type that most closely mimic traditional stock exchanges where buyers and sellers trade at the current market price of whichever asset they want, with the exchange acting as the intermediary and charging a small fee for facilitating the trade. Kraken and GDAX are examples of this kind of cryptocurrency exchange. Fully peer-to-peer exchanges that operate without a middleman include EtherDelta, and IDEX, which are also examples of decentralized exchanges.
  2. Cryptocurrency Brokers: These are website or app based exchanges that act like a Travelex or other bureau-de-change. They allow customers to buy or sell crypto assets at a price set by the broker (usually market price plus a small premium). Coinbase is an example of this kind of exchange.
  3. Direct Trading Platform: These platforms offer direct peer-to-peer trading between buyers and sellers, but don’t use an exchange platform in doing so. These types of exchanges do not use a set market rate; rather, sellers set their own rates. This is a highly risky form of trading, from which new users should shy away.
To understand how an exchange functions we need only look as far as a traditional stock exchange. Most all the features of a cryptocurrency exchange are analogous to features of trading on a traditional stock exchange. In the simplest terms, the exchanges fulfil their role as the main marketplace for crypto assets of all kinds by catering to buyers or sellers. These are some definitions for the basic functions and features to know: Market Orders: Orders that are executed instantly at the current market price. Limit Order: This is an order that will only be executed if and when the price has risen to or dropped to that price specified by the trader and is also within the specified period of time. Transaction fees: Exchanges will charge transactions fees, usually levied on both the buyer and the seller, but sometimes only the seller is charged a fee. Fees vary on different exchanges though the norm is usually below 0.75%. Transfer charges: The exchange is in effect acting as a sort of escrow agent, to ensure there is no foul play, so it might also charge a small fee when you want to withdraw cryptocurrency to your own wallet.
Regulatory Environment and Evolution
Cryptocurrency has come a long way since the closing down of the Silk Road darknet market. The idea of crypto currency being primarily for criminals, has largely been seen as totally inaccurate and outdated. In this section we focus on the developing regulations surrounding the cryptocurrency asset class by region, and we also look at what the future may hold.
The United States of America
A coherent uniform approach at Federal or State level has yet to be implemented in the United States. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network published guidelines as early as 2013 suggesting that BTC and other cryptos may fall under the label of “money transmitters” and thus would be required to take part in the same Anti-money Laundering (AML) and Know your Client (KYC) procedures as other money service businesses. At the state level, Texas applies its existing finance laws. And New York has instituted an entirely new licensing system.
The European Union
The EU’s approach to cryptocurrency has generally been far more accommodating overall than the United States, partly due to the adaptable nature of pre-existing laws governing electronic money that predated the creation of Bitcoin. As with the USA, the EU’s main fear is money laundering and criminality. The European Central Bank (ECB) categorized BTC as a “convertible decentralized currency” and advised all central banks in the EU to refrain from trading any cryptocurrencies until the proper regulatory framework was put in place. A task force was then set up by the European Parliament in order to prevent and investigate any potential money laundering that was making use of the new technology.
Likely future regulations for cryptocurrency traders within the European Union and North America will probably consist of the following proposals: The initiation of full KYC procedures so that users cannot remain fully anonymous, in order to prevent tax evasion and curtail money laundering. Caps on payments that can be made in cryptocurrency, similar to caps on traditional cash transactions. A set of rules governing tax obligations regarding cryptocurrencies Regulation by the ECB of any companies that offer exchanges between cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies It is less likely for other countries to follow the Chinese approach and completely ban certain aspects of cryptocurrency trading. It is widely considered more progressive and wiser to allow the technology to grow within a balanced accommodative regulatory framework that takes all interests and factors into consideration. It is probable that the most severe form of regulation will be the formation of new governmental bodies specifically to form laws and exercise regulatory control over the cryptocurrency space. But perhaps that is easier said than done. It may, in certain cases, be incredibly difficult to implement particular regulations due to the anonymous and decentralized nature of crypto.
Behavior of Cryptocurrency Investors by Demographic
Due to the fact that cryptocurrency has its roots firmly planted in the cryptography community, the vast majority of early adopters are representative of that group. In this section we cover the basic structure of the cryptocurrency market cycle and the makeup of the community at large, as well as the reasons behind different trading decisions.
The Cryptocurrency Market Cycle
Bitcoin leads the bull rally. FOMO (Fear of missing out) occurs, the price surge is a constant topic of mainstream news, business programs cover the story, and social media is abuzz with cryptocurrency chatter. Bitcoin reaches new All Timehigh (ATH) Market euphoria is fueled with even more hype and the cycle is in full force. There is a constant stream of news articles and commentary on the meteoric, seemingly unstoppable rise of Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s price “stabilizes”, In the 2017 bull run this was at or around $14,000. A number of solid, large market cap altcoins rise along with Bitcoin; ETH & LTC leading the altcoins at this time. FOMO comes into play, as the new ATH in market cap is reached by pumping of a huge number of alt coins.
Top altcoins “somewhat” stabilize, after reaching new all-time highs. The frenzy continues with crypto success stories, notable figures and famous people in the news. A majority of lesser known cryptocurrencies follow along on the upward momentum. Newcomers are drawn deeper into crypto and sign up for exchanges other than the main entry points like Coinbase and Kraken. In 2017 this saw Binance inundated with new registrations. Some of the cheapest coins are subject to massive pumping, such as Tron TRX which saw a rise in market cap from $150 million at the start of December 2017 to a peak of $16 billion! At this stage, even dead coins or known scams will get pumped. The price of the majority of cryptocurrencies stabilize, and some begin to retract. When the hype is subsiding after a huge crypto bull run, it is a massive sell signal. Traditional investors will begin to give interviews about how people need to be careful putting money into such a highly volatile asset class. Massive violent correction begins and the market starts to collapse. BTC begins to fall consistently on a daily basis, wiping out the insane gains of many medium to small cap cryptos with it. Panic selling sweeps through the market. Depression sets in, both in the markets, and in the minds of individual investors who failed to take profits, or heed the signs of imminent collapse. The price stagnation can last for months, or even years.
The Influence of Age upon Trading
Did you know? Cryptocurrencies have been called “stocks for millennials” According to a survey conducted by the Global Blockchain Business Council, only 5% of the American public own any bitcoin, but of those that do, an overwhelming majority of 71% are men, 58% of them are between the ages of 18 and 35, and over half of them are minorities. The same survey gauged public attitude toward the high risk/high return nature of cryptocurrency, in comparison to more secure guaranteed small percentage gains offered by government bonds or stocks, and found that 30% would rather invest $1,000 in crypto. Over 42% of millennials were aware of cryptocurrencies as opposed to only 15% of those ages 65 and over. In George M. Korniotis and Alok Kumar’s study into the effects of aging on portfolio management and the quality of decisions made by older investors, they found “that older and experienced investors are more likely to follow “rules of thumb” that reflect greater investment knowledge. However, older investors are less effective in applying their investment knowledge and exhibit worse investment skill, especially if they are less educated and earn lower income.”
Geographic Influence upon Trading
One of the main drivers of the apparent seasonal ebb and flow of cryptocurrency prices is the tax situation in the various territories that have the highest concentrations of cryptocurrency holders. Every year we see an overall market pull back beginning in mid to late January, with a recovery beginning usually after April. This is because “Tax Season” is roughly the same across Europe and the United States, with the deadline for Income tax returns being April 15th in the United States, and the tax year officially ending the UK on the 6th of April. All capital gains must be declared before the window closes or an American trader will face the powerful and long arm of the IRS with the consequent legal proceedings and possible jail time. Capital gains taxes around the world vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction but there are often incentives for cryptocurrency holders to refrain from trading for over a year to qualify their profits as long term gain when they finally sell. In the US and Australia, for example, capital gains are reduced if you bought cryptocurrency for investment purposes and held it for over a year. In Germany if crypto assets are held for over a year then the gains derived from their sale are not taxed. Advantages like this apply to individual tax returns, on a case by case basis, and it is up to the investor to keep up to date with the tax codes of the territory in which they reside.
2013 Bull run vs 2017 Bull run price Analysis
In late 2016 cryptocurrency traders were faced with the task of distinguishing between the beginnings of a genuine bull run and what might colorfully be called a “dead cat bounce” (in traditional market terminology). Stagnation had gripped the market since the pull-back of early 2014. The meteoric rise of Bitcoin’s price in 2013 peaked with a price of $1,100 in November 2013, after a year of fantastic news on the adoption front with both Microsoft and PayPal offering BTC payment options. It is easy to look at a line going up on a chart and speak after the fact, but at the time, it is exceeding difficult to say whether the cat is actually climbing up the wall, or just bouncing off the ground. Here, we will discuss the factors that gave savvy investors clues as to why the 2017 bull run was going to outstrip the 2013 rally. Hopefully this will help give insight into how to differentiate between the signs of a small price increase and the start of a full scale bull run. Most importantly, Volume was far higher in 2017. As we can see in the graphic below, the 2017 volume far exceeds the volume of BTC trading during the 2013 price increase. The stranglehold MtGox held on trading made a huge bull run very difficult and unlikely.
Fraud & Immoral Activity in the Private Market
Ponzi Schemes Cryptocurrency Ponzi schemes will be covered in greater detail in Lesson 7, but we need to get a quick overview of the main features of Ponzi schemes and how to spot them at this point in our discussion. Here are some key indicators of a Ponzi scheme, both in cryptocurrencies and traditional investments: A guaranteed promise of high returns with little risk. Consistentflow of returns regardless of market conditions. Investments that have not been registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Investment strategies that are a secret, or described as too complex. Clients not allowed to view official paperwork for their investment. Clients have difficulties trying to get their money back. The initial members of the scheme, most likely unbeknownst to the later investors, are paid their “dividends” or “profits” with new investor cash. The most famous modern-day example of a Ponzi scheme in the traditional world, is Bernie Madoff’s $100 billion fraudulent enterprise, officially titled Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC. And in the crypto world, BitConnect is the most infamous case of an entirely fraudulent project which boasted a market cap of $2 billion at its peak.
What are the Exchange Hacks?
The history of cryptocurrency is littered with examples of hacked exchanges, some of them so severe that the operation had to be wound up forever. As we have already discussed, incredibly tech savvy and intelligent computer hackers led by Alexander Vinnik stole 850000 BTC from the MtGox exchange over a period from 2012–2014 resulting in the collapse of the exchange and a near-crippling hammer blow to the emerging asset class that is still being felt to this day. The BitGrail exchange suffered a similar style of attack in late 2017 and early 2018, in which Nano (XRB) was stolen that was at one point was worth almost $195 million. Even Bitfinex, one of the most famous and prestigious exchanges, has suffered a hack in 2016 where $72 million worth of BTC was stolen directly from customer accounts.
Hardware Wallet Scam Case Study
In late 2017, an unfortunate character on Reddit, going by the name of “moody rocket” relayed his story of an intricate scam in which his newly acquired hardware wallet was compromised, and his $34,000 life savings were stolen. He bought a second hand Nano ledger into which the scammers own recover seed had already been inserted. He began using the ledger without knowing that the default seed being used was not a randomly assigned seed. After a few weeks the scammer struck, and withdrew all the poor HODLer’s XRP, Dash and Litecoin into their own wallet (likely through a few intermediary wallets to lessen the very slim chances of being identified).
Hardware Wallet Scam Case Study Social Media Fraud
Many gullible and hapless twitter users have fallen victim to the recent phenomenon of scammers using a combination of convincing fake celebrity twitter profiles and numerous amounts of bots to swindle them of ETH or BTC. The scammers would set up a profile with a near identical handle to a famous figure in the tech sphere, such as Vitalik Buterin or Elon Musk. And then in the tweet, immediately following a genuine message, follow up with a variation of “Bonus give away for the next 100 lucky people, send me 0.1 ETH and I will send you 1 ETH back”, followed by the scammers ether wallet address. The next 20 or so responses will be so-called sockpuppet bots, thanking the fake account for their generosity. Thus, the pot is baited and the scammers can expect to receive potentially hundreds of donations of 0.1 Ether into their wallet. Many twitter users with a large follower base such as Vitalik Buterin have taken to adding “Not giving away ETH” to their username to save careless users from being scammed.
Market Manipulation
It also must be recognized that market manipulation is taking place in cryptocurrency. For those with the financial means i.e. whales, there are many ways in which to control the market in a totally immoral and underhanded way for your own profit. It is especially easy to manipulate cryptos that have a very low trading volume. The manipulator places large buy orders or sell walls to discourage price action in one way or the other. Insider trading is also a significant problem in cryptocurrency, as we saw with the example of blatant insider trading when Bitcoin Cash was listed on Coinbase.
Examples of ICO Fraudulent Company Behavior
In the past 2 years an astronomical amount of money has been lost in fraudulent Initial Coin Offerings. The utmost care and attention must be employed before you invest. We will cover this area in greater detail with a whole lesson devoted to the topic. However, at this point, it is useful to look at the main instances of ICO fraud. Among recent instances of fraudulent ICOs resulting in exit scams, 2 of the most infamous are the Benebit and PlexCoin ICOs which raised $4 million for the former and $15 million for the latter. Perhaps the most brazen and damaging ICO scam of all time was the Vietnamese Pincoin ICO operation, where $660million was raised from 32,000 investors before the scammer disappeared with the funds. In case of smaller ICO “exit scamming” there is usually zero chance of the scammers being found. Investors must just take the hit. We will cover these as well as others in Lesson 7 “Scam Projects”.
Signposts of Fraudulent Actors
The following factors are considered red flags when investigating a certain project or ICO, and all of them should be considered when deciding whether or not you want to invest. Whitepaper is a buzzword Salad: If the whitepaper is nothing more than a collection of buzzwords with little clarity of purpose and not much discussion of the tech involved, it is overwhelmingly likely you are reading a scam whitepaper.
Signposts of Fraudulent Actors §2
No Code Repository: With the vast majority of cryptocurrency projects employing open source code, your due diligence investigation should start at GitHub or Sourceforge. If the project has no entries, or nothing but cloned code, you should avoid it at all costs. Anonymous Team: If the team members are hard to find, or if you see they are exaggerating or lying about their experience, you should steer clear. And do not forget, in addition to taking proper precautions when investing in ICOs, you must always make sure that you are visiting authentic web pages, especially for web wallets. If, for example, you are on a spoof MyEtherWallet web page you could divulge your private key without realizing it and have your entire portfolio of Ether and ERC-20 tokens cleaned out.
Methods to Avoid falling Victim
Avoiding scammers and the traps they set for you is all about asking yourself the right questions, starting with: Is there a need for a Blockchain solution for the particular problem that a particular ICO is attempting to solve? The existing solution may be less costly, less time consuming, and more effective than the proposals of a team attempting to fill up their soft cap in an ICO. The following quote from Mihai Ivascu, the CEO of Modex, should be kept in mind every time you are grading an ICO’s chances of success: “I’m pretty sure that 95% of ICOswill not last, and many will go bankrupt. ….. not everything needs to be decentralized and put on an open source ledger.”
Methods to Avoid falling Victim §2 Do I Trust These People with My Money, or Not?
If you continue to feel uneasy about investing in the project, more due diligence is needed. The developers must be qualified and competent enough to complete the objectives that they have set out in the whitepaper.
Is this too good to be true?
All victims of the well-known social media scams using fake profiles of Vitalik Buterin, or Bitconnect investors for that matter, should have asked themselves this simple question, and their investment would have been saved. In the case of Bitconnect, huge guaranteed gains proportional to the amount of people you can get to sign up was a blatant pyramid scheme, obviously too good to be true. The same goes for Fake Vitalik’s offer of 1 ether in exchange for 0.1 ETH.
Selling Cryptocurrencies, Several reasons for selling with the appropriate actions to take:
If you are selling to buy into an ICO, or maybe believe Ether is a safer currency to hold for a certain period of time, it is likely you will want to make use of the Ether pair and receive Ether in return. Obviously if the ICO is on the NEO or WANchain blockchain for example, you will use the appropriate pair. -Trading to buy into another promising project that is listing on the exchange on which you are selling (or you think the exchange will experience a large amount of volume and become a larger exchange), you may want to trade your cryptocurrency for that exchange token. -If you believe that BTC stands a good chance of experiencing a bull run then using the BTC trading pair is the suitable choice. -If you believe that the market is about to experience a correction but you do not want to take your gains out of the market yet, selling for Tether or “tethering up” is the best play. This allows you to keep your locked-in profits on the exchange, unaffected by the price movements in the cryptocurrency markets,so that you can buy back in at the most profitable moment. -If you wish to “cash out” i.e. sell your cryptocurrency for fiat currency and have those funds in your bank account, the best pair to use is ETH or BTC because you will likely have to transfer to an exchange like Kraken or Coinbase to convert them into fiat. If the exchange offers Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash pairs it could be a good idea to use these for their fast transaction time and low fees.
Selling Cryptocurrencies
Knowing when and how to sell, as well as strategies to inflate the value of your trade before sale, are important skills as a trader of any product or financial instrument. If you are satisfied that the sale itself of the particular amount of a token or coin you are trading away is the right one, then you must decide at what price you are going to sell. Exchanges exercise their own discretion as to which trading “pairs” they will offer, but the most common ones are BTC, ETH, BNB for Binance, BIX for Bibox etc., and sometimes Tether (USDT) or NEO. As a trader, you decide which particular cryptocurrency to exchange depending on your reason for making that specific trade at that time.
Methods of Sale
Market sell/Limit sell on exchange: A limit sell is an order placed on an exchange to sell as soon as (also specifically only if and when) the price you specified has been hit within the time limit you select. A market order executes the sale immediately at the best possible price offered by the market at that exact time. OTC (or Over the Counter) selling refers to sale of securities or cryptocurrencies in any method without using an exchange to intermediate the trade and set the price. The most common way of conducting sales in this manner is through LocalBitcoins.com. This method of cryptocurrency selling is far riskier than using an exchange, for obvious reasons.
The influence and value of your Trade
There are a number of strategies you can use to appreciate the value of your trade and thus increase the Bitcoin or Ether value of your portfolio. It is important to disassociate yourself from the dollar value of your portfolio early on in your cryptocurrency trading career simply because the crypto market is so volatile you will end up pulling your hair out in frustration following the real dollar money value of your holdings. Once your funds have been converted into BTC and ETH they are completely in the crypto sphere. (Some crypto investors find it more appropriate to monitor the value of their portfolio in satoshi or gwei.) Certainly not limited to, but especially good for beginners, the most reliable way to increase your trading profits, and thus the overall value and health of your portfolio, is to buy into promising projects, hold them for 6 months to a year, and then reevaluate. This is called Long term holding and is the tactic that served Bitcoin HODLers quite well, from 2013 to the present day. Obviously, if something comes to light about the project that indicates a lengthy set back is likely, it is often better to cut your losses and sell. You are better off starting over and researching other projects. Also, you should set initial Price Points at which you first take out your original investment, and then later, at which you take out all your profits and exit the project. That should be after you believe the potential for growth has been exhausted for that particular project.
Another method of increasing the value of your trades is ICO flipping. This is the exact opposite of long term holding. This is a technique in which you aim for fast profits taking advantage of initial enthusiasm in the market that may double or triple the value of ICO projects when they first come to market. This method requires some experience using smaller exchanges like IDEX, on which project tokens can be bought and sold before listing on mainstream exchanges. “Tethering up” means to exchange tokens or coins for the USDT stable coin, the value of which is tethered to the US Dollar. If you learn, or know how to use, technical analysis, it is possible to predict when a market retreatment is likely by looking at the price movements of BTC. If you decide a market pull back is likely, you can tether up and maintain the dollar value of your portfolio in tether while other tokens and coins decrease in value. The you wait for an opportune moment to reenter the market.
Market Behavior in Different Time Periods
The main descriptors used for overall market sentiment are “Bull Market” and “Bear Market”. The former describes a market where people are buying on optimism. The latter describes a market where people are selling on pessimism. Fun (or maybe not) fact: The California grizzly bear was brought to extinction by the love of bear baiting as a sport in the mid 1800s. Bears were highly sought after for their intrinsic fighting qualities, and were forced into fighting bulls as Sunday morning entertainment for Californians. What has this got to do with trading and financial markets? The downward swipe of the bear’s paws gives a “Bear market” its name and the upward thrust of a Bull’s horns give the “Bull Market” its name. Most unfortunately for traders, the bear won over 80% of the bouts. During a Bull market, optimism can sometimes grow to be seemingly boundless, volume is rising, and prices are ascending. It can be a good idea to sell or rebalance your portfolio at such a time, especially if you have a particularly large position in one holding or another. This is especially applicable if you need to sell a large amount of a relatively low-volume holding, because you can then do so without dragging the price down by the large size of your own sell order.
Learn more on common behavioral patterns observed so far in the cryptocurrency space for different coins and ICO tokens.
Follow the link:
UBAI.co
If you want to know how do security tokens work, and become a professional in crypto world contact me via Facebook to get all the details:
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submitted by UBAI_UNIVERSITY to u/UBAI_UNIVERSITY [link] [comments]

Estimating DPR's income after expenses & exchange rate

The FBI indictment states that SDPR earned ฿614,305 in commissions. It's been suggested that the expense of running SR, and the large changes in the exchange rate, may substantially reduce how many bitcoins DPR actually could have saved up, possibly to as low as ฿"150-200k". (The logic here is that if SR earns commissions of ฿100 in 2011 but needs to pay $100 of hosting bills, it needs to sell all ฿100 but in 2013, it would need to sell only ฿1.)
DPR surely spent some of the commissions on running SR & himself, but running a website isn't that expensive, and how badly the exchange rate bites will depend on details like how it fluctuated over time, how sales grew over time, and how big the expenses really are. The reduction could be tiny, or it could be huge. It's hard to tell based just on a gut estimate.
So: below, I take estimates of SR growth from Christin 2013's crawl and the FBI indictment, infer linear growth of SR sales, estimate daily expenses, and combine it with historical Bitcoin exchange rates to show that DPR probably has most of his bitcoins and 200k or lower is right out.

Model

My strategy is to model Silk Road's growth as linear in dollar amounts, but with different amounts of bitcoins each day depending on the exchange rate, subtract a daily operating cost, and then sum the commissions.
So say that on 1 January 2012, SR did $10k of business, and the exchange rate was 1:100, so ฿100 in turnover, and SR gets an average commission of 7.4%, so it would get ฿7.4.
To do this, I need to estimate the revenue each day, the expenses each day, the commission each day, and the exchange rate each day. Then I can multiply revenue by commission, subtract the expense, and sum the left overs to get an estimate of the total bitcoins available to DPR which he could (or could not) have spent.

Expenses

  1. Employees: we know that Libertas and one or two others were employed at salaries of $1-2k per week. I'll assume there were 2 others, and each was paid the max of $2k per week, which means total daily employee expenses is (2 * 2000) / 7 = $571 per day. (Unfortunately, the indictment doesn't give any clear indication of their numbers, just referring to them as 'they'.)
    This is a conservative estimate since I'm pretty sure that SR was a one-man operation until probably in 2012.
  2. The servers: we know there were at least 2 servers (the main site, and the forums). The task of hosting the sites does not seem to be too bandwidth or disk-space intensive, and servers are extremely cheap these days. The use of DataClub.biz and GigaTux suggest DPR was using cheap VPSes. I'll estimate a monthly expense of $500 ($250 a piece) which per day is $16.
    This is also very conservative.
  3. DPR: his rent of $1000/month has been widely bruited about, and in general he reportedly spent little. Makes sense to me, I've met and seen the rooms of a few well-paid geeks in SF like DPR, and I would believe them if they said they didn't spend much money on anything but rent & food. I'll bump this up by $1000 for food and all expenses, since he apparently didn't even eat out very much. So $2000/31=$65.
    Doubling his rent for total expenses is probably also conservative; for most people, rent is not >50% of income, but SF is incredibly expensive to live in.
This gives a daily expense of $652 (or a monthly total of $19.1k in expenses). As you can see, the employees are by far the most expensive part of running SR in my estimate, which makes me wonder if maybe Libertas was the only employee.

Hitmen

Assuming the details about DPR hiring hitmen in the indictments are reasonably accurate, we can throw in two large expenses:
  1. an $80k expenditure for killing his Maryland employee. The first payment of $40k was made on 4 February 2013 and the second/final payment of $40k was made on 1 March 2013 (pg9). If we use the exchange rate of those two days, then the hit cost DPR (40000 / 20.42) + (40000 / 34.24) = ฿3127
  2. the second hit was priced in bitcoins (pg23):
    Through further messages exchanged on March 31, 2013, DPR and redandwhite agreed upon a price of 1,670 Bitcoins
So the hits cost DPR somewhere around ฿4797. An extremely large and painful amount, by most standards, but still nowhere near ฿10k - much less higher.

Revenue over time: first and last days

Christin:
Table 3 provides a breakdown of the feedback ratings from 184,804 feedback instances we collected...In Figure 12, we plot an estimate of the daily commissions collected by Silk Road operators as a function of time. We simply reuse the previous estimates, and apply both the fixed 6.23% rate, and the schedule of Table 4 to each item. We find that the new schedule turns out to yield on average a commission corresponding to approximately 7.4% of the item price.
The FBI:
From February 6, 2011 to July 23, 2013 there were approximately 1,229,465 transactions completed on the site...$79.8 million (USD) in commissions.
According to Bitcoin Charts, on 23 July 2013, the MtGox price was $91. (As the most famous exchange, any FBI estimate almost certainly used it.) So that implies $79,800,000/91=฿876,923. Or to put it the other way, at $79.8m in transactions, then using Christin's 7.4% estimate, total sales were $1,078,000,000 or ฿10,780,000.
Wikipedia says "These transactions involved 146,946 unique buyer accounts, and 3,877 unique vendor accounts.", and "The total revenue generated from transactions was 9,519,664 bitcoins. Commissions collected from the sales by Silk Road amounted to 614,305 bitcoins."
(So the numbers aren't too different: 614k vs 876k and 10.8m vs 9.5m.)
We'll set 6 February 2011 to $10 in sales (probably not too far from the truth). But what about 23 July 2013? pg20 of the indictment says:
For example, on July 21, 2013 alone, DPR received approximately 3,237 separate transfers of Bitcoins into his account, totaling approximately $19,459. Virtually all of these transactions are labeled "commission".
19459 / 0.074 = $262,959 that day. $20k in commissions is extremely impressive, since Christin estimates only $4k/day commissions as late as the end of July 2012 - so SR must have grown by 500% from 2012 to 2013. We use this revenue estimate as our endpoint and interpolate from $10 to $262,959 over the ~900 days SR existed. This is a conservative way of modeling SR, since the graphs in Christin indicate that SR saw sigmoid growth in 2012, and 2013 would've seen even more growth (to be consistent with the 2013 July commission datapoint being 5x the 2012 July commission datapoint).

Exchange rate

I grab weighted price for each day between 6 February 2011 & 23 July 2013, and stuff it in a CSV.

Analysis

R> sr <- read.csv("http://dl.dropboxusercontent.com182368464/dpr-exchangerate.csv") R> sr$Sales <- c(10, rep(NA, 890), 262959, NA, NA) R> # revenue increased by $300 a day: R> l <- lm(Sales ~ as.numeric(Date), data=sr); l Coefficients: (Intercept) as.numeric(Date) -285 295 R> sr$Sales <- predict(l, newdata=sr) R> sum(with(sr, (Sales * 0.074 - 652) / ExchangeRate)) [1] 803397 
Or we can run the estimate the other way: if DPR had to spend $652 a day and converted at that day's exchange rate, and we took into account the hitmen, how many bitcoins would he have spent in total?
R> sum(with(sr, 652 / ExchangeRate)) [1] 127154 R> (614305 - 127154) - 4797 [1] 482354 

Conclusion

Obviously ฿803k > ฿614k, which implies that the linear model overestimates sales in the early life of SR; but going the other direction and estimating just from costs & hitmen & total commission, we still wind up with nearly ฿500k (and that was after making a bunch of highly conservative assumptions). The fewer sales (and commissions) early on, the less of a fixed number of bitcoins will be sold. So, while it may initially sound plausible that DPR could have been forced to part with say ฿400k to pay for SR and sundry expenses, the distribution of sales and fluctuations of Bitcoin value mean that this simply does not seem to be the case.
Unless there are some abandoned yachts floating around the SF Bay Area, DPRoss Ulbricht probably has ฿500k-614k.
submitted by gwern to SilkRoad [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/CryptoCurrency] 20 Tools and Resources for Crypto Investors: Guide to how to form a winning strategy

The following post by arsonbunny is being replicated because the post has been silently removed and some comments within it have been openly removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ CryptoCurrency/comments/7sw98b
The open modlog reason it was removed as reported by /CryptoCurrency was: Section 13 - Blacklisted Domains. Domain detected: cointracking.info.
The original post's content was as follows:
Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
Many people entered recently at a time when the market was rewarding the very worst type of investment behavior. Unfortunately there aren't many guides and a lot of people end up looking at things like Twitter or the trending Youtube crypto videos, which is dominated by "How to make $1,00,000 by daytrading crypto" and influencers like CryptoNick.
So I'll try to put together a guide from what I've learned and some tips, on how to invest in this asset class. This is going to be Part 1, in another post later I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
  • http://coinmarketcal.com - Keeping tabs of everything going on in crypto is tough, wouldn't it be great if there was some sort of calendar? Well this is a calendar of upcoming crypto events, whether its conferences, product releases, burns, exchange listings...etc. You can also filter by types of events, coins and month.
  • http://coin.fyi - Great for following the news related to a specific cryptocurrencies
  • http://cryptopanic.com - An aggregator of various crypto sites and news, filterable.
  • http://coinspectator.com - Another aggregator from over a 100 different sources of crypto news.
  • https://www.ccowl.com/news - News from major sites (CoinDesk, Cointelegram, Bloomberg...etc) on one page
  • http://cci30.com - Kind of like the S&P500 for crypto, its an index of the 30 biggest cryptocurrencies
  • http://eveningstar.io - this is basicall trying to be the Morning Star for cryptos
  • http://icotracker.net - I like this site for looking at what ICO are coming up
  • http://www.icoalert.com - Another good site for upcoming ICO tracking
  • http://icodrops.com - More ICO listings and they have a "hype" rating
  • http://bitcointalk.org - Probably the biggest crypto community, lots of Bitcoin old timers who have seen it all
  • Both Medium and Steemit have plenty of blogs to follow depending on what interests you within crypto
  • Telegram is the preferred chat platform, just stay away from PnD groups (same for Discord PnD groups)
Analysis tools
  • http://cryptowat.ch - Great charting tool owned by Kraken that gives you a pretty wide look at various cryptos across most major exchanges.
  • http://coinmonsta.io/metrics - Want to see what the most shilled coins are on Twitter? This ranking multiplies the number of tweets vs. sentiment estimate to arrive at a score.
  • http://onchainfx.com - A better version of coin market cap, has all sort of columns and you can add flags. Also I like their market segmentation filters.
  • http://www.sifrdata.com/ - Great visualizations of various metrics. I find their correlations to be very useful.
  • http://www.coingecko.com - includes useful information about crypto like the breakdown volume by fiat currency, social media stats, code repository stats..etc
  • http://www.tradingview.com/chart/ - the best charting site that I use for stocks, however it has plenty of major cryptos
  • http://www.iconomi.net/dashboard - basically forms different ETFs out of cryptos. Not a bad place to get ideas for your portfolio.
  • http://cointrading.ninja/correlation - See a matrix of price movement correlatiosn between various cryptocurrencies over various periods.
  • http://coinmarketcap.com - Useful for scanning the market, and finding the blockchain explorer and official website for each individual crypto. Their API is also quite useful for Excel based analysis.
  • http://icobench.com - Another ICO tracker which does nice summaries, shows teams, milestones, financials and gives a rating for each IC
  • http://cryptomaps.org - Visualization of price across different segments, primarily hashing functions and ICO release dates
  • http://solume.io - compares the number of Twitter mention increase decrease to price
  • http://www.badbitcoin.org - a list of all the known scam sites. Check this list before joining something.
Portfolio Tracking
  • Delta and Blockfolio are the major mobile apps, I personally recommend Delta.
  • For desktop I prefer to use a CoinMarketCap API Excel tracker that automatically draws live data from CoinMarketCap. Customize it to your own liking. There are also plenty of online tracking sites like AltPocket but I've never used them so can't recommend one.
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:
  • Crypto Investor - A background in finance gives Crypto Investor a much more nuanced approach, and he is very insightful in terms of investor behavioral psychology. Listening to his negativity and criticism of parabolic price action in a sea of lambo chasing is refreshing.
  • CoinMastery - Carter Thomas takes on a rational mid-term to long term approach to investing in crypto, and has been a voice of reason many times.
  • DataDash - He's more focused on trading, but I still like him for his news summaries and overall decent content.
  • IvanOnTech - Brings a programmers perspective, goes through the Github and explains many programming issues with blockchains.

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption or actual widespread utility with cryptocurrency. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012...
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/Bitcoin] So you want in on bitcoin?

The following post by cryptocurrencypeople is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been silently removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ Bitcoin/comments/7e760k
The original post's content was as follows:

Guide for Noobs

Simple and Not A Lot of Money

  • setup an account on coinbase.com, buy your coins, walk away until next year or later, fees are ~1.5% which is $1.5 USD for a $100 USD of coin
  • note coinbase does have an option to buy via credit card instead of a bank account, fees are ~4% when you do that, your credit card company may charge more if it considers it a cash transfer

Guide for Not Noobs

Less Simple

-setup an account on coinbase.com, move dollars into your account, setup an account on gdax.com (same company, same login), move your cash from coinbase to gdax, buy your coins on GDAX at Market, fees are cheaper 0.25% versus 1.5%
-consider buying alternative coins supported by coinbase

No Fees

-all of the above but use GDAX's Limit/Buy, zero fees, but you have to wait for the market to dip below your buy price

More Money Available

-setup several Limit/Buy orders at different price points to capture dips when you are away

More Control but More Complex

-it's possible coinbase could go out of business, move some or most of your coins to a personal hardware wallet like a Trezor or Ledger Nano S, made in Czech Republic and France respectively
-consider using other exchanges like Gemini, Bitstamp, or Kraken with different fees and coin support
-consider buying other alternative coins supported by other exchanges

You Are Very Responsible

-create a paper wallet, put it in a safe, be warned it's like a visual bearer instrument, if you lose it or someone takes a picture of it...it's gone, but you have complete control over your money/asset

DO NOT EVER

-buy more than you can lose, it's early wild west days, the market could easily come crashing down
-panic sell, the market fluctuates regularly by 20%, thus far it has ALWAYS recovered, people that try to sell during a fall/dip and buy at the bottom usually miss time it and lose
-store your keys on your computer or phone unless its small amount, these are the two most vulnerable routes to hacking and simple hardware failure resulting in loss
-attempt to daytrade and time the best prices unless your real life job is day trading
-get addicted to watching the market, pay attention watch for dips, but don't let it crowd out your work or free time
-keep a LOT of cash or coin in an exchange, it is very easy to mistype and buy or sell far more than you meant to, exchanges can disappear with your coins
-buy a hardware wallet from anyone other than the company who makes it, i.e. do not buy one on Amazon, it is possible some third person hacked it and could steal your coin

PROBABLY DON'T

-limit sells until the far future when market volatility is down, flash crashes have happened and recovered, if you had all your coin in limit sells it would be gone
-margin trade unless your real life job is day trading
-stop buys or stop sells unless your real life job is day trading

DO

-hold your coins, your coin may be worth x10 or more in value in the future, e.g. if bitcoin replaced gold, bitcoin would be worth ~x70 the current value
-buy small amounts over time DCA, this might not seem intuitive but it spreads your risk out, reduces risk of buying at all time highs (ATH) and more likely to catch lows (dips), a fluctuation of $100 in price is small if the eventual value is worth x10 or more in the future
-keep a small amount of cash on an exchange always, when there is a lot of traffic/trading which happens during dips, you are much more likely to be able to make trades on an exchange rather than with your own wallet

REMEMBER

-if you don't have your coin in your own wallet, it's not your coin. this is not a problem until you have a lot of value and you want to keep it safe from a bankruptcy, unscrupulous people/exchanges, or unforeseen acts. if it's a small amount compared to your income it's an acceptable risk, if not then move it to a wallet
-in the days of fake news not everything you read is true, in fact there are armies of people shilling for 'pick a random coin'; some are malicious, some uninformed, and some willfully uninformed
-if your value starts to become large, dig deep into how your asset/currencies work just like you would for any other purchase, understanding how it works helps you understand if it will be a success, e.g. understand the difference between PoW vs PoS or what a hard fork is
-some coins especially newer ones are scams, a good indication of if it is not a scam is how long the coin has been around
-most bitcoin hard forks so far have not been successful with some exceptions
-btc is the accepted short-name for bitcoin on most (but not all) exchanges

Other Risks

-holding your own coin requires personal responsibility, it is easy to lose and not be able to recover it if you are not careful
-again, do not buy more coin than you can lose
-transaction speeds which are slow are a serious problem in bitcoin scaling
-there is less innovation and more argument going on in bitcoin than some other coins, bitcoin is large enough that consensus is difficult, future change is less likely than with some other coins, there are other side solutions to bitcoins problems that may not require bitcoin to change much
-bitcoin.org IS the generally accepted bitcoin website, NOT bitcoin.com
-important other risks compiled by themetalfriend
-coinbase has insurance up to $250k USD for you USD Wallet which DOES NOT cover your bitcoins or other crypto currencies, they claim to have separate insurance for your crypto currency but it is unclear how much

Community

there are a lot of memes
-hodl, GameKyuubi mistyped hold and it spread
-to the moon, where everyone hopes the price will go
-coin on a rollercoaster, it is highly volitile market you will see this during fluctuations
-this is gentlemen, via Liquid_child , here
-lambo/roadster, a car people want to buy when they get rich
-the cost of pizza, early days someone bought a pizza for 10,000btc which is worth over ~80million USD today
-tesla/vehicle with a bitcoin chart, cytranic posted a picture that spread
-intersting guide by stos313 , here. I do not agree with everything but it has a lot of useful information.

CORRECTIONS

Edit: Adding in user comments.
Edit: Crosslinking to a more Beginner Version.
Edit: Note in an earlier edit of this guide I said.
note that most of the development on bitcoin is by employees of one company, it is open source but their priorities may not align with the community
This is not true. Blockstream appears to have a high representation but not an overwhelming amount. You can compare blockstream's employee page and bitcoin's commits in the last year. Thank you to lclc_ , trilli0nn , and Holographiks for pointing this out.
Edit: Clarification that FDIC insurance does NOT cover crypto currency/assets.
Edit: Clarity on who owns bitcoin.org

Good Luck and Hodl.

Please comment if your experience is different. Or call out things I missed.
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/CryptoCurrency] 25 Tools and Resources for Crypto Investors: Guide to how to create a winning strategy

The following post by arsonbunny is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been openly removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ CryptoCurrency/comments/7t4lkj
The original post's content was as follows:
Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
This is going to be Part 1 and will deal with research resources, risk and returns. In Part 2 I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets with derived price targets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
  • http://coinmarketcal.com - Keeping tabs of everything going on in crypto is tough, wouldn't it be great if there was some sort of calendar? Well this is a calendar of upcoming crypto events, whether its conferences, product releases, burns, exchange listings...etc. You can also filter by types of events, coins and month.
  • http://coin.fyi - Great for following the news related to a specific cryptocurrencies
  • http://cryptopanic.com - An aggregator of various crypto sites and news, filterable.
  • http://coinspectator.com - Another aggregator from over a 100 different sources of crypto news.
  • https://www.ccowl.com/news - News from major sites (CoinDesk, Cointelegram, Bloomberg...etc) on one page
  • http://cci30.com - Kind of like the S&P500 for crypto, its an index of the 30 biggest cryptocurrencies
  • http://eveningstar.io - this is basicall trying to be the Morning Star for cryptos
  • http://icotracker.net - I like this site for looking at what ICO are coming up
  • http://www.icoalert.com - Another good site for upcoming ICO tracking
  • http://icodrops.com - More ICO listings and they have a "hype" rating
  • http://bitcointalk.org - Probably the biggest crypto community, lots of Bitcoin old timers who have seen it all
  • Both Medium and Steemit have plenty of blogs to follow depending on what interests you within crypto
  • Telegram is the preferred chat platform, just stay away from PnD groups (same for Discord PnD groups)
Analysis tools
  • http://cryptowat.ch - Great charting tool owned by Kraken that gives you a pretty wide look at various cryptos across most major exchanges.
  • http://coinmonsta.io/metrics - Want to see what the most shilled coins are on Twitter? This ranking multiplies the number of tweets vs. sentiment estimate to arrive at a score.
  • http://onchainfx.com - A better version of coin market cap, has all sort of columns and you can add flags. Also I like their market segmentation filters.
  • http://www.sifrdata.com/ - Great visualizations of various metrics. I find their correlations to be very useful.
  • http://www.coingecko.com - includes useful information about crypto like the breakdown volume by fiat currency, social media stats, code repository stats..etc
  • http://www.tradingview.com/chart/ - the best charting site that I use for stocks, however it has plenty of major cryptos
  • http://www.iconomi.net/dashboard - basically forms different ETFs out of cryptos. Not a bad place to get ideas for your portfolio.
  • http://cointrading.ninja/correlation - See a matrix of price movement correlatiosn between various cryptocurrencies over various periods.
  • http://coinmarketcap.com - Useful for scanning the market, and finding the blockchain explorer and official website for each individual crypto. Their API is also quite useful for Excel based analysis.
  • http://icobench.com - Another ICO tracker which does nice summaries, shows teams, milestones, financials and gives a rating for each IC
  • http://cryptomaps.org - Visualization of price across different segments, primarily hashing functions and ICO release dates
  • http://solume.io - compares the number of Twitter mention increase decrease to price
  • http://www.badbitcoin.org - a list of all the known scam sites. Check this list before joining something.
Portfolio Tracking
  • Delta and Blockfolio are the major mobile apps, I personally recommend Delta.
  • For desktop I prefer to use a CoinMarketCap API Excel tracker that automatically draws live data from CoinMarketCap. Customize it to your own liking. There are also plenty of online tracking sites like AltPocket but I've never used them so can't recommend one.
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:
  • Crypto Investor - A background in finance gives Crypto Investor a much more nuanced approach, and he is very insightful in terms of investor behavioral psychology. Listening to his negativity and criticism of parabolic price action in a sea of lambo chasing is refreshing.
  • CoinMastery - Carter Thomas takes on a rational mid-term to long term approach to investing in crypto, and has been a voice of reason many times.
  • IvanOnTech - Brings a programmers perspective, goes through the Github and explains many programming issues with blockchains.

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption, if anything adoption among eCommerce sites is decreasing. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage of previous price action. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning...
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

MAD Doge - Market Analysis 2/27/2014 (Limited Time edition) 40 minutes of laptop battery...let's go!

Okay, I'm on my laptop and I only have 40, make that 39 minutes of battery life. Realistically, I'm looking at 29 minutes before my computer shuts down. Let's do this.

NEWS

A senator has called for the banning of BitCoin - don't worry, this usually happens when something bad turns up. All that he's doing is playing into the anger some people have for losing their money. He's just hoping to pass regulation that he can get his name on that he can add a few small sections of his own. Sneaky Cat
Mt. GOX is being probed by both Japanese and US regulators, I believe this is likely due to the fact that MT GOX was shut down earlier and allowed to be opened by the US Government, essentially approving of their services Such Endorsement. It looks bad for the regulators that approved it and their trying to cover their bases in hopes the blame can be shifted towards MT GOX alone.
If you haven't glanced at the price of DOGE today, it's rising and it looks like we're getting a steady boost. The price of DOGE vs the US Dollar rose 20% over the past 24 hours according to Doge4us and it looks like we're going to stay consistently above $1 / 1kDOGE.
Additionally, we're seeing a boost in mining which shows that confidence has returned to the DOGE mining community and we should see some decent boosts over the next few hours.
If you search DogeCoin or BitCoin on the web, you'll notice a lot of news outlets getting in on month-old news. We already knew a guy was selling his house for DOGE long ago and many other stories were re-run. Although funny to point out, publicity is still publicity, so keep it going!

Last bit...

  1. If you have a link to a business online that sells stuff for DOGE, please post it below!
  2. Okay, let's do something special, for any comments, tip me and I'll double it and give it to the most popular DOGE accepting charity (through the DogeCoin Foundation - With Picture Proof on the next post) It's time to give back, it's time to Shibe hard or go home. You don't even have to donate, at least post a comment of which charity you want to see supported. :)
  3. Please note that I will double within reason, I'll cap it, but I won't let you know the cap, because I tend to break my own rules. It's charity after all :)
No battery life left! I'll fix any typos tomorrow!
submitted by DRKMSTR to MADDOGE [link] [comments]

[Table] IAmA full-time Bitcoin day-trader, blogger, and explainer. I was a pro TCG player. Here until Midnight EST. AMA!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-02-20
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
Let's say someone was looking for a stay at home computer job, would you recommend doing what you do? Is it something you can hop into, or is it something a lot of time must be put into before considerable income comes? You handle risk and pressure well, and you don't let your emotions guide your decision-making. Professional Poker and TCG players often develop this skillset.
You have experience working with stocks, bonds, derivatives, foreign exchange, or other financial instruments. If you have a strong mathematical background, that would also likely fulfill this.
You can invest significant capital into trading while remaining financially secure if it all suddenly vanishes.
You are capable of constantly monitoring a situation, waking up in the middle of the night if an alarm goes off, etc. It requires serious dedication.
You are good at keeping up with news, understanding market psychology, and "feeling" shifts in attitude and perception among other market participants.
Of those, I'd be most cautious if you don't meet no. 3. Going bust is a real possibility--day-trading a volatile commodity is inherently extremely high-risk. Nos. 2 and 4 are the easiest to learn or force through routine. No. 1 requires a person who approaches things in an emotionally detached manner. No. 5 is something that comes with investing enough time.
Second question: I'm answering this after that big block of text because this answer will come off like a get-rich-quick scheme. Yes, you can hop into it very quickly, and you can start making very high profits very quickly. I put in a small initial investment to test the waters, and made 10% on it in a few days. If you have the right skillset, composure, and resources, yes. It is a potentially very lucrative and exciting stay-at-home job. It is not for everyone, though.
As much as it would be beneficial for me (being in the industry and all), to tell everyone it's easy and that it will help them provide for themselves I feel that people need to know the real risks that are involved. Regardless, that's all a little irrelevant. We're not playing the house, and we're not flipping coins. We're playing other investors, and we're making actual decisions. You keep saying things like "98% lose money" and "Go onto any FOREX forum, and you will see from the users posts that they pretty much all lose money" but you don't back it up. Cool, yeah, it's a zero-sum game with a rake: a little more than half of the players will lose. That's expected. They'll probably complain about it, too, huh?
Retrospect can have a very positive effect. Got any real account trading statements I can have a look at? Let's see how fast you can come up with excuses not to show me ;) I only have and need one: I have chosen not to disclose my personal valuation for privacy reasons. Same reason I've had all along. I instead publicly disclose my trades, as they happen, on my website. The posts are timestamped, and the ones that are the start of a position contain the price I entered at. Go check the posts, then go check the charts, then go check my archive. But feel free to continue to arbitrarily call my credibility into question--that makes your argument better!
What leverage do you use? In Australia the leverage is typically 100:1, perhaps that's why your not seeing how risky I deem it to be. First, our argument so far has had nothing to do with risk. Second, I told you I am leveraged 2.5:1, two posts ago. Third, you realize I'm trading Bitcoin, not ForEx, correct? And that no one in their right mind would offer 100:1 leverage on Bitcoin due to its volatility?
What's your last year's hourly salary? A year ago I was finishing up college and extricating myself from the TCG business I'd co-founded. I took very little in take-home pay over that period, but kept part ownership of the continuing business. Money isn't just about the number on your bank account--it's also about residual future income.
How many hours a week are you typically on a computer? On a computer, probably 50-55, if you add in time I spend on my phone, I'd say 65-70. Day trading takes constant watchfulness. I imagine it's like an easier version of taking care of a baby.
What are your favorite to sources of news besides waiting for it to get to the front/hot page of /Bitcoin when it's several hours old? I have an IFTTT for /BitcoinMarkets and /Bitcoin that notifies me early on about some posts.
What's the weirdest thing about your mom? She started a bookselling business online in her 50s and makes more money than me.
Or.
She's a little old lady who loves gadgets and technology.
What are your thoughts on Dogecoin and other bitcoin competitors? Do you think any have staying value? LTC.
DOGE.
NXT.
VTC.
Coins that offer something different or that have a strong community to them can be valuable prospects.
LTC is the first-mover scrypt coin - DOGE has the most non-techies interested in its success and is spreading quickly as a result - NXT is a cool generation two coin that has a lot of features BTC doesn't have - VTC is ASIC-resistant
Ok, let me spell it out to you. The retail forex market only makes up 5% of the total forex markets liquidity. The other 95% is from hedge funds and institutions. Therefore, 99% of the retail market losing their money is very possible, as that only makes up 4.95% of the whole market. Is it possible that 4.95% of the market generally loses? Yes. How is that infeasible? Nope. That's a false equivalence. It is possible that 4.95% of the market loses. It is not feasible, that, say, 99% of people with blue eyes lose. What, exactly, in empirical terms, is the difference between retail investors and hedge/institutions that causes this INCREDIBLE disparity? Would you care to respond to my above empirical argument that demonstrates that a zero-decision system is flipping a losing coin? Do you consider it feasible for 99% of people playing a 45-55 game to lose?
Are there options and/or futures markets for Bitcoin? Not really yet, but there will be more prominent ones soon. I hear about a new one pretty regularly, it seems, but nothing that seems truly legitimate has come out. I'm certainly excited for them, though.
Eventually, once Mr. Lawsky and co. get things sorted out, I'm certain we'll see a big-name investment bank start offering them.
From the time you started trading until today, what is your overall percentage return? In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
Ben, i told you I'd be here and asking about Hearthstone first. If there's one class that needs a bit of tuning, up or down, which is it and why? I think Mage needs basic, class-level tuning. I'm not sure what needs to be done exactly, but I don't like what the Mage class power does to gameplay. I've thought some about how different it would be if it could only hit minions, and I'd want to know if Blizzard had tried that out. The Mage power is too versatile, and over the long-term I think it will prove to be problematic.
What's your favorite card? Lord Jaraxxus is my favorite card. He has a truly legendary feel to him when you play him, but your opponent can still win, even though he's very powerful.
So, where do you think we go from here? I'm currently short, but I don't expect to be so for a lot longer. I don't think we'll get past 550. I also don't expect this drop to hold on for a really long time.
I haven't seen a good, substantive rationale for what the MtGox situation really has to do with Bitcoin price. Yes, it looks bad, it certainly doesn't help with our legitimacy, but is it really worth the incredible price declines we continue to see? I don't think so. I think we are seeing these impressive declines because the price on MtGox (which is a reflection of trust in MtGox relative to Bitcoin price, not just Bitcoin price) has been declining heavily. I don't expect it to continue forever, especially not with things like the Winkdex and the accompanying ETF launching.
MtGox is basically dead to me, for now at least. The sooner everyone stops paying attention to it, the sooner we can all get back on track, which I, for one, will be quite happy about.
Do you think that it's a good thing for a game when the developers of that game discourage certain playing styles (e.g. mill decks or decks that try to win in unconventional manners) whether in hearthstone, MTG, or other TCGs? It can be. I don't want the developers metaphorically over my shoulder outlawing strategies, but I don't mind if the strategies that are "less fun" for your opponent (Draw/Go, Mill, or Hard Combo from MTG, for example) are also less powerful. Most players prefer a game where the best decks are also among the most fun, because it means that they are playing against fun decks more often. Clearly the 2-cost 3/3 will be played most often. If you fix this by making both 2-cost guys 2/2s or 3/3s, or by making one a 2/3 and the other a 3/2, then you've done something--but it's not that interesting. If you instead make the 2-cost 2/2 have text that says "While you control the 3-cost 3/3, this gets +2/+2" and you give the 3 cost 3/3 text that says "While you control the 2-cost 2/2, it has Taunt" you now have more complex cards that reward players for doing something other than just playing the best stand-alone card.
Which do you think is a better option to encourage diversity in TCGs; improving/buffing cards/decks that hardly see any play versus weakening/nerfing cards that are overwhelmingly played? This is obviously a very simplistic example, but I hope it makes the point. Games are more fun when you give players more relevant choices: buffing and nerfing cards tends not to do that as well as promoting synergies does.
Where/what is the actual money behind bitcoin? If it does exist. You might need to rephrase your question for me to understand what you're asking. If you're asking why a Bitcoin has value, the answer is the same as any other good: because someone is willing to pay it.
If you're asking why someone is willing to pay that amount, my answer would be utility.
I just got started on Bitfinex (using your referral link) and am a little intimidated. What types of trades would I recommend I try as a beginner? From there, just keep careful watch, and see what happens. Be neutral and objective toward your own hypothesis, just like in science. Don't be biased by your hopes, be focused on the reality.
So far I've only done a liquidity swap offer to try it since it seemed (nearly) risk free. Have you done any liquidity swap or is it too low in profit? If I'm not going to be able to check my computer for a day or two, or I'm uncertain of what's going to happen the next few days, I do use the liquidity swap function. It's actually very profitable, relative to traditional investments. And you're right, it is low-risk. I'm a fan. Good job selecting it if you were intimidated--that's a good place to start. As far as actually starting trading, do science. Start with a hypothesis. If you were up at 5 AM today when MtGox published their announcement, a good hypothesis might have been something like: "This announcement is going to be a blow to their credibility, and might panic the markets. We'll probably drop by some amount as a result." Invest based on it, figure out around what price you want to take profits, and at what price you'll cut your losses and get out. Stick to those determinations unless something substantive changes. The time you tell yourself you can afford to not close your position because it will "rebound" back to where you want is also the time you lose your shirt.
Is it true that you like Balloons? No, I <3 them.
Lol to the question about your mom... Ben, from my understanding Bitcoin is anonymous, does this mean that you can avoid taxation when receiving payment? Bitcoin isn't anonymous. That's actually a common misconception. It's actually pseudonymous, like Reddit. You end up with an online identity--a wallet address--that you use with Bitcoin.
If I walk up to you on a street corner and buy Bitcoin with cash, then I'm pretty much anonymous. If I buy it from a large institution like Coinbase or some other company, they will have records of the address my Bitcoin was bought for. As a result, you can trace them down, generally speaking.
As for avoiding taxation, that's a general no.
What do you think Bitcoin's biggest hurdle is and how do you think it can be overcome? Are there any misconceptions about Bitcoin that you think people have? The biggest hurdle for Bitcoin to overcome is governments. Governments have a variety of reasons not to want an alternative currency. We seem to have done pretty well on that front here in the US, but for other countries (China) that is not the case. Past that, the other major hurdle is something I consider an inevitability: consumer adoption. Business adoption has begun in earnest, consumer adoption hasn't. It will when enough businesses take Bitcoin to give it sufficient utility for the average customer.
What trading platform do you use to daytrade Bitcoin? What is the standard margin that Bitcoin brokers offer? what's the typical ask/bid spread? I primarily use Bitfinex.
Very few Bitcoin brokers currently offer leverage, Bitfinex offers 2.5:1. Over time, I anticipate it will become more like current Forex, where 10:1 or greater leverage is common.
It varies by exchange depending on their fees. Huobi charges 0% fees, so their spread is generally tiny. Some exchanges can be as wide as 1.5%. Typically, I see spreads between .5 and .7%.
Do you invest in any other type of cryptocurrency? if so, which is your favorite besides bitcoin? I currently have no other holdings, but I've held DOGE and LTC at points and am considering VTC and NXT. DOGE is probably my favorite, because if the community can keep this up for a little longer it will snowball into amaze.
Can you trade me a Jace? TMS WWK, TMS FTV, Beleren, MA, or AoT?
Beleren. M10, M11, LOR, JVC, JVCJPN, or Book Promo?
M10 and if not possible then M11. Sure.
I've been reading your blog for quite some time and especially like your summaries for recent events. Keep up the good work! Do you use strict stop-loss orders for your trades? When do you decide to close a trade? Especially in situations where you can basically see you profit/loss grow by the minute. When is enough? Do you have a longterm bitcoin investment you don't touch or do you use everything you have for trading? I do use relatively strict stop losses, but they're not stop loss orders. My conditions usually aren't just the price hitting a certain point, but instead it sustaining for a brief period, or hitting it with a certain volume, or with a certain amount of resistance to retreat. I don't want my stop loss to be triggered by some idiot who dumps 300 BTC and temporarily drops the price 15, but only ends up really dropping it 3. I am very strict with myself about this, though, generally speaking--if I can't trust promises I make to myself, what good am I?
Let's say for example you have a sum x dollar and a sum y bitcoin on your trading account. How much % of x or y do you risk at every trade? I've seen a formula for the max. amount of investment and read numerous times that traders shouldn't risk more than one or two percent of their "bankroll". Do you generally have dollar and btc or just one of them at any given time? 100% of funds in every trade, so long as all funds are easily moved into the position. Common exceptions are lack of liquidity and funds being on other exchanges. My reasoning for being all-in all-the-time is that it's a profit-maximizing move. It is also risk-maximizing. My risk tolerance is infinite; most people's isn't. Only ever one. Generally BTC if I'm long, dollar if I'm short. I prefer to double-dip, as otherwise it would be in contradiction to the 100% plan. I use everything I have for trading. Again, profit-maximization, infinite risk tolerance.
I decide a closing price when I'm near either my stop loss or my profit aim. I place a limit order or multiple limit orders wherever I need to. I avoid market orders whenever possible. Enough is when I hit my goals or my loss tolerance. I decide these at the start, but I frequently re-evaluate them as news and market conditions develop.
What is a typical bid/ask spread for Bitcoin? It depends what exchange you're looking at, but generally .5-.7%.
What's the best way to popularize Bitcoin among the masses? Add your own but would love your thoughts on: -microtransactions developing nations -gift economy (tipping) I would suggest just running around shouting "You get to be your own bank" is probably the best way.
In all seriousness, though--we don't need to try. It's going to happen on its own from now on, as the news media slowly starts to pick up the story. People will start appearing on TV talking about it with more and more frequency. Things like the Dogelympic teams are great PR and help boost it up, as well, of course, but in general it's just going to follow the adoption curve of every other technology.
If it picks up in a few developing nations that have stable internet, it will be a massive revolution for them. Self-banking can do a huge amount of good for an economy like theirs. We might see reports on that. If a major newspaper decides to run a permanent paywall like what the Sun-Times tested recently, that could be big as well. The slow PR from tipping on Reddit is another way, to be honest. Every bit helps, but the cryptocurrency community is now large enough that we're going to do a significant amount of organic, word-of-mouth style growth.
Do you think that a magic game could beat harthstone? If they do a good job, absolutely. They have to focus on the right things. It needs to be mobile-available, easy to pick up and play, and fun.
Is there a good crypto currency to get in on now, before it explodes like bitcoin did? There are plenty of options. Check out coinmarketcap.com. Fair warning, there are plenty of horrible things there--treat it kind of like penny stocks. I like BTC, LTC, DOGE, NXT, and VTC.
Also, why is it such a pain in the ass to buy them with actual money? Like you have to have bitcoins to buy other crypto currency. It's such a pain to buy them with USD because no one has made a good system to do it on, like Coinbase. If you think there's a desire, go do it!
Well the way I look at it, is how the hell else would you be able to buy them? Not everyone has piles of bitcoins lying around and I really don't want to spend $600+ on a single bitcoin just to buy some other currencies. Ah, I see the problem! You can buy fractions of a Bitcoin using Coinbase--I think .01BTC (~$6) is their minimum.
The March 2013 appreciation was from American and European investors and November 2013 was mainly from Chinese investors. Which group of people do you think will be the next to buy (I hate using the word invest when talking about bitcoin) bitcoin for investment purposes? American institutional and hobby investors. That is, Wall Street and people who pay attention to Wall Street.
Which do you think will be a better long term (~5 years) investment, Bitcoins, Litecoins, Dogecoins, Fetch Lands, Shock Lands, or Original Dual Lands? Does it change for ~10 years? Either Bitcoin or Fetch lands for 5 years. For 10 years, Bitcoin. I'd be worried about the 10-year view for paper MTG.
Ive been mining Bitcoins for years now, i have a good sum im my wallet but i never plan to use them. Does this make me a bad person? Approximately yes.
Ben, I should've simultaneously copied and pasted all of my questions from the Spreecast over to here but here are a few... It seems like the conspiracy crowd has really latched onto the idea of Bitcoin as being a discreet form of currency. If Bitcoin is backed up by the internet why would people choose having a currency that's being tracked over say cash, gold, different commodities? Having a currency be tracked has negatives and positives, but it's overwhelmingly positive for the average consumer. Because it's tracked, you don't need to pay someone to move your money for you. There also are no chargebacks, which means merchants aren't getting scammed and passing those costs onto consumers. Theft costs everyone money. It's also very fast--transactions confirm in just 10 minutes, regardless of size or where it's going. Transferring dollars from here to China is very difficult--transferring Bitcoin? Just as easy as from anywhere else to anywhere.
My job is a mix of voodoo, intuition, science, and news. In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
No, just gambling. In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Anyway, how have the profits been from start to finish compared to the market? Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
Are you willing to disclose how much you have in your trading portfolio/what kind of profit you turn both % and $ wise? In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
What would you say is the easiest method of shorting bitcoin or any other coin? For shorting Bitcoin or Litecoin, check here.
For other coins, there isn't really a good way yet, to the best of my knowledge. A few exchanges have plans to add short-selling, but Bitfinex is really the only one I know of that has.
What did you have for breakfast today. Didn't breakfast, was delicious.
Hey Ben, I know next to nothing about Bitcoin. I went to /bitcoin after seeing this AMA on your FB, and I noticed that everyone is going apeshit over "Gox". I have no idea what that means or why everyone is so sad/angry/suicidal. MtGox (which originally stood for Magic the Gathering Online eXchange) was the first prominent Bitcoin exchange. They've been going through some rather rough times lately, some of which I was an early cataloguer of here. In short, everyone is freaking out because the exchange may be insolvent. It's not really a big deal to Bitcoin as a whole, but it's certainly an obvious blow to credibility. In my view, people are primarily upset because MtGox has been a part of Bitcoin for a very long time, and it can be hard to let go of what we're used to. I expect that they will either fix the issues or will go out of business officially very soon.
Please explain what happened.
Tell me every artist in your iTunes. Daft Punk, detektivbyrån, Kid Cudi, Matisyahu, The White Panda.
Spotify for life, yo.
Follow up question, what % are you in BTC vs Fiat and when you are on the losing side of a trade do you find your self dumping in more to get right or do you pull the cord Unless my positions are on different exchanges or in different coins, they're all always 100% of what I'll put into that trade at entrance and exit. As a result, I end up with a binary choice: stay or reduce/close. I very rarely reduce position size, nearly always preferring to just end the position instead.
Last updated: 2014-02-25 04:57 UTC
This post was generated by a robot! Send all complaints to epsy.
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Mt Gox Trustee Bitcoin Selloff Effect on Cryptocurrency Market Since December through March MtGox Bitcoins to BTC Bitcoins in 50 seconds 1300 Dollar pro Bitcoin! Mt.Gox Entschädigung - IOTA News nach Hack - BTC Chart What's the Best Bitcoin Chart? And what it can tell us. Bitcoin FUD - Mt Gox, Binance Hack, SEC Regulations!

Bitcoin / US Dollar, Daily Chart, MtGox. Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar (MTGOX:BTCUSD) BitcoinSignal MTGOX:BTCUSD Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar. 835 views. 3. 0. Our long position is working out well and has already moved through the 20 day EMA resistance level and has stalled at the mid-point or piercing line for the candle of 6 Dec 2013. This level is key to overcome if the uptrend is to continue. Otherwise ... Die liquidierte Krypto-Exchange Mt. Gox bestreitet, am Kursfall der Kryptowährungen eine Mitschuld zu tragen. Mt. Gox hatte im vergangenen Winter Bitcoin und Bitcoin Cash im Wert von über 400 Millionen US-Dollar verkauft. Parallel dazu fiel der Bitcoin-Kurs in mehreren Schüben. Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. Show me a Mt.Gox like event and I'll agree with your position. Today, there is a healthy amount of other sizable currencies to support overall stability, significant opportunities built on blockchain technology. Even if such an event like Mt.Gox took place today, market reaction back then vs. today is expected to be very different. TradingView. Sign In. Ticker Trading Ideas Educational Ideas Scripts People

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Mt Gox Trustee Bitcoin Selloff Effect on Cryptocurrency Market Since December through March

Mt Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi has published a document announcing the estate associated with Mt Gox has sold thousands of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash since t... the mt gox sell of dip is not over yet. mt gox still has 166,000 BTC to sell. valued at 1.5 billion. the last dip, which brought us from 19,800 to under 6,000 was caused by FUD and a mere 400 ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue 1300 Dollar pro Bitcoin! Mt.Gox Entschädigung - IOTA News nach Hack - BTC Chart Mt.Gox Entschädigung - IOTA News nach Hack - BTC Chart Finanzielle Freiheit dank Kryptowährungen The Mt.Gox Story (Bitcoin Exchange) Digital Dojos. Loading... Unsubscribe from Digital Dojos? ... US Digital Dollar PLANS LEAKED! Coinbase Involved!? - Duration: 15:54. Chico Crypto 105,734 views ...

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